Friday, January 27, 2017

GDP: Tame Health Spending in Weak Report

For those (like me) concerned about how much health spending continues to increase after Obamacare, today’s flash report of fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product confirmed good news.

Overall, real GPD increased 1.9 percent on the quarter, while health services spending increased only 1.6 percent, and contributed only 10 percent of real GDP growth. Growth in health services spending was somewhat higher than growth in non-health services spending (1.2 percent) but significantly lower than non-health personal consumption expenditures (2.7 percent). Further, the implied annualized change in the health services price index increased by just 1.5 percent, lower than the price increase of 2.4 percent for non-health services, 2.3 percent for non-health PCE, and 2.2 percent for non-health GDP.

(See Table I below the fold.)


Longer term, growth in health services spending is also moderate, having grown 0.8 percent since 2015 Q4, versus 0.7 percent for non-health services, 3.3 percent for non-health PCE, and 2.1 percent for non-health GDP (Table II). Implied inflation for health was also low.


However, the full-year GDP for 2016 still shows disproportionately high growth in health spending, which rose 4.3 percent versus just 1.5 percent for non-health services spending, 2.3 percent for non-health personal consumption expenditures, and 1.2 percent for non-health GDP (Table III).


Nevertheless, it looks like health spending got under control in the second half of last year. It is a good starting point for the new Administration.

Technical note: Until the July 29, 2016 entry on the GDP release, I discussed nominal GDP growth. As of August 26, 2016, these updates discuss real GDP growth, in line with the way most media cover GDP. However, as of the October 28, 2016 entry, I add a column that estimates changes in the price indices, calculated from the news release.

When I discuss health services in these quarterly GDP releases, I mean only health services. I do not include purchases of medical equipment, or facilities construction. While I include Medicare and Medicaid, I do not include Veterans Health Administration or other government benefits. So, these dollar figures undercount the amount of our economy consumed by the government-health complex.

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