(A version of this column was published by
Forbes.)
Since the election, there has been a lot
of sturm und drang around what the
alternative to Obamacare will look like. It looks like we can be highly
confident the Republican-majority Congress will repeal
Obamacare very quickly starting in January. However, there is some question
about what exactly will be repealed.
Last year’s repeal bill, H.R. 3762 repealed
Obamacare’s spending and taxes, but not its over regulation of health
insurance. Further, Republican politicians have promised not only to repeal
Obamacare, but replace it with a
better payment system than existed previously. People’s primary concern about
the previous system was that people in the individual market could be denied
coverage for pre-existing conditions or charged higher premiums as a result of
underwriting.
Politically, it would not be possible for
Republicans to walk back from this commitment. According to the Kaiser Family
Foundation’s November tracking poll:
Among those who
want to see the ACA repealed, 38 percent (meaning 10 percent of the public
overall) change their opinion after hearing the argument made by proponents
that repealing the ACA would mean that insurance companies would be able to
deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.
Trump voters react
similarly, with a larger share changing their opinion after hearing that
repealing the ACA would mean that insurance companies would be able to deny
coverage to people with pre-existing conditions (27 percent) than changing
their opinion after hearing that more than 20 million Americans could lose
their coverage (8 percent).
The economics of health insurance make
this very difficult to achieve without some sort of mandate or penalty for not
maintaining coverage, which is politically unpopular – and especially toxic to
Republicans. This poses
a challenge; and we all know Republican politicians have promised to solve
this for six years without result. Fortunately, we also have recent evidence
that Republicans can lead and succeed on complex health reform legislation.
Way back on September 22, I encouraged
President Obama to exercise leadership to ensure the passage of the 21st
Century Cures Act, a law which fundamentally reforms the Food and Drug
Administration by allowing new research methods and statistical analyses that
will speed drugs to patients (as I described in a previous
column).
President Obama never really did provide
leadership, but he got on the train before it ran off the rails and waved from
the caboose when it finally reached its destination, signing the bill on
December 13. In a gracious and heartfelt speech, he awkwardly attempted to
connect the 21st Century Cures Act to the 2010 Affordable Care Act,
which gave us Obamacare.
Nothing could be further from the truth:
The Affordable Care Act was rammed through Congress on a highly partisan basis
before the politicians even read it. The 21st Century Cures Act
originated with Representative Frank Upton (R-MI) Chairman of the House Energy
& Commerce Committee. As far back as April
2014, Rep. Upton collaborated with his Democratic counterpart, Rep. Diana
DeGette (D-CO) on a commitment to develop broad-based, bipartisan legislation
to advance medical innovation.
For one year, the Energy & Commerce
Committee travelled the country, openly gathering input from scientists,
patients, and others. By May 2015, the Committee had written the bill and voted
unanimously (51-0) to advance it bill to the House floor.
Because of this transparency and
deliberation, the final version of the bill passed the Senate 94-5 and the
House 392-26. Of course, any legislation that gets so many votes will likely
have picked up some unattractive elements along the way, and the 21st
Century Cures Act is no exception.
One conservative activist group labelled
the bill a “Christmas
tree,” festooned with ornaments and presents scattered underneath it. I
have previously criticized
gimmickry in the bill’s financing. Nevertheless, the bill’s spending component
is just $6.3 billion over ten years on research committed to three areas: The
National Institutes of Health, the Cancer Moonshot, and the opioid epidemic.
These are hardly hills for a fiscal
conservative to die on. Further, the bill makes two big steps towards repealing
Obamacare. It is largely paid for by repealing $3.5 billion of Obamacare
spending on a poorly defined “Public Health and Prevention Fund.” Republicans
also managed to add an important improvement in Health Reimbursement
Arrangements (HRAs) to the bill. Small employers’ contributions to workers’
HRAs will be exempt from Obamacare’s burdensome regulations.
The passage of the 21st Century
Cures act is a very good sign for Republican leadership on post-Obamacare
health reform.
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