One of the themes of this blog is that the number of uninsured Americans is not decreasing as quickly or surely as Obamacare’s supporters would have us believe. Part of the problem estimating this is a confusing series of releases from federal agencies, which has led to inconsistent interpretation by scholars.
Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released the results of the National Health Insurance Survey (NHIS), which I discussed under the headline “Number of Uninsured Americans Aged 18-64 Down 2 Percentage Points.” What this was referring to was that the percentage of residents in that age group who were uninsured at the time of the interview had dropped from 20.4 percent in 2013 to 18.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014. That’s about 3.8 million people.
However, the proportion who were uninsured for at least part of the last year barely budged from 24.4 percent to 24.3 percent, and the proportion who were uninsured for more than a year dropped by 1.7 percentage points, from 15.7 percent to 14 percent. That’s about 3.2 million people. Obviously, the last group is a subset of the second group. The first group is also a subset of the second group, but it is not clear how to connect the first group and the third group.
It's a big difference, with big policy implications:
Read the entire column at NCPA's Health Policy Blog.